Portugal v Croatia
WORLDCUP · Thursday 2 July, 11:00 pm
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Fair market
Draw $3.65
Portugal $1.91
Croatia $4.95
de-vigged consensus · exchange-weighted
| Bookie | Draw | Portugal | Croatia | Margin | Promo EV | Score · Balanced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair exchange · prices shown pre-commission | $3.80+4.1% | $1.82-4.6% | $5.20+4.9% | 0.5% | — | 87.5 |
| 2 | Matchbook | $3.55-2.8% | $1.87-1.9% | $5.10+2.9% | 1.3% | — | 74.0 |
| 3 | Smarkets | $3.45-5.5% | $1.85-3.0% | $5.00+0.9% | 3.0% | — | 73.9 |
| 4 | PointsBet | $3.50-4.2% | $1.77-7.2% | $5.00+0.9% | 5.1% | — | 71.7 |
| 5 | Betfair Ex Uk | $3.55-2.8% | $1.87-1.9% | $5.10+2.9% | 1.3% | — | 71.3 |
| 6 | Sportsbet | $3.50-4.2% | $1.75-8.2% | $5.00+0.9% | 5.7% | — | 69.4 |
| 7 | Betrivers | $3.45-5.5% | $1.81-5.1% | $4.80-3.1% | 5.1% | — | 63.6 |
| 8 | Unibet | $3.50-4.2% | $1.77-7.2% | $4.80-3.1% | 5.9% | — | 62.4 |
| 9 | Fanduel | $3.40-6.9% | $1.80-5.6% | $4.90-1.1% | 5.4% | — | 55.3 |
| 10 | Draftkings | $3.60-1.4% | $1.83-4.0% | $4.60-7.2% | 4.2% | — | 51.4 |
| 11 | TABtouch | $3.45-5.5% | $1.76-7.7% | $4.70-5.1% | 7.1% | — | 51.1 |
| 12 | Betonlineag | $3.42-6.3% | $1.84-3.5% | $5.00+0.9% | 3.6% | — | 50.0 |
| 13 | Grosvenor | $3.45-5.5% | $1.81-5.1% | $4.80-3.1% | 5.1% | — | 49.7 |
| 14 | Betr | $3.50-4.2% | $1.78-6.7% | $4.50-9.2% | 7.0% | — | 45.4 |
| 15 | TAB | $3.40-6.9% | $1.80-5.6% | $4.50-9.2% | 7.2% | — | 43.5 |
| 16 | Leovegas | $3.45-5.5% | $1.81-5.1% | $4.80-3.1% | 5.1% | — | 42.5 |
| 17 | Skybet | $3.30-9.6% | $1.80-5.6% | $4.75-4.1% | 6.9% | — | 41.4 |
| 18 | Bet Right | $3.50-4.2% | $1.76-7.7% | $4.50-9.2% | 7.6% | — | 38.5 |
| 19 | Betfred Uk | $3.50-4.2% | $1.83-4.0% | $4.50-9.2% | 5.4% | — | 38.3 |
| 20 | Coral | $3.50-4.2% | $1.85-3.0% | $4.40-11.2% | 5.4% | — | 37.8 |
| 21 | Casumo | $3.45-5.5% | $1.81-5.1% | $4.80-3.1% | 5.1% | — | 34.2 |
| 22 | Unibet Uk | $3.40-6.9% | $1.80-5.6% | $4.60-7.2% | 6.7% | — | 33.9 |
| 23 | Fanatics | $3.40-6.9% | $1.87-1.9% | $4.50-9.2% | 5.1% | — | 33.9 |
| 24 | PlayUp | $3.40-6.9% | $1.77-7.2% | $4.50-9.2% | 8.1% | — | 32.9 |
| 25 | Bovada | $3.55-2.8% | $1.83-4.0% | $4.60-7.2% | 4.6% | — | 32.4 |
| 26 | Livescorebet | $3.35-8.3% | $1.78-6.7% | $4.70-5.1% | 7.3% | — | 27.8 |
| 27 | Ladbrokes Uk | $3.50-4.2% | $1.83-4.0% | $4.33-12.6% | 6.3% | — | 27.5 |
| 28 | Dabble | $3.40-6.9% | $1.77-7.2% | $4.50-9.2% | 8.1% | — | 26.8 |
| 29 | Mybookieag | $3.40-6.9% | $1.82-4.6% | $4.60-7.2% | 6.1% | — | 21.0 |
| 30 | Williamhill | $3.30-9.6% | $1.75-8.2% | $4.60-7.2% | 9.2% | — | 20.0 |
| 31 | Virginbet | $3.35-8.3% | $1.78-6.7% | $4.70-5.1% | 7.3% | — | 19.4 |
| 32 | Paddypower | $3.30-9.6% | $1.75-8.2% | $4.75-4.1% | 8.5% | — | 18.8 |
| 33 | Betmgm | $3.50-4.2% | $1.83-4.0% | $4.33-12.6% | 6.3% | — | 14.7 |
| 34 | Betway | $3.40-6.9% | $1.77-7.2% | $4.20-15.2% | 9.7% | — | 12.2 |
| 35 | Boylesports | $3.40-6.9% | $1.80-5.6% | $4.50-9.2% | 7.2% | — | 10.7 |
| 36 | Williamhill Us | $3.40-6.9% | $1.79-6.1% | $4.50-9.2% | 7.5% | — | 0.0 |
| 37 | Sport888 | $3.25-11.0% | $1.75-8.2% | $4.60-7.2% | 9.7% | — | 0.0 |
Scores computed 29 Jun 10:21 pm · snapshot retained for audit · edge chips show each price against the fair market
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How this ranking works
Every price is measured against a fair market built by de-vigging all 37 books pricing this event (the exchange, with commission removed, is weighted double). The Balanced preset weights: price edge 45%, promo value 20%, market margin 15%, market depth 10%, bookmaker reliability 10%. Stale feeds are penalised up to 10 points. Full methodology →