Hawthorn Hawks v Melbourne Demons
AFL · Saturday 4 July, 3:15 am
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Fair market
Melbourne Demons $3.19
Hawthorn Hawks $1.46
de-vigged consensus · exchange-weighted
| Bookie | Melbourne Demons | Hawthorn Hawks | Margin | Promo EV | Score · Recreational | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair exchange · prices shown pre-commission | $3.35+5.1% | $1.39-4.6% | 1.8% | — | 78.1 |
| 2 | Sportsbet | $3.06-4.0% | $1.38-5.3% | 5.1% | +9.9% Members | 76.3 |
| 3 | TAB | $3.10-2.8% | $1.38-5.3% | 4.7% | +9.9% Members | 74.4 |
| 4 | Dabble | $3.10-2.8% | $1.38-5.3% | 4.7% | — | 62.5 |
| 5 | Neds | $3.05-4.3% | $1.38-5.3% | 5.3% | — | 57.5 |
| 6 | PlayUp | $3.05-4.3% | $1.36-6.7% | 6.3% | — | 52.5 |
| 7 | Bet Right | $3.05-4.3% | $1.38-5.3% | 5.3% | — | 42.5 |
| 8 | Betr | $3.10-2.8% | $1.37-6.0% | 5.3% | — | 41.9 |
| 9 | Unibet | $2.75-13.8% | $1.42-2.5% | 6.8% | — | 41.9 |
| 10 | TABtouch | $2.85-10.6% | $1.43-1.8% | 5.0% | — | 40.0 |
| 11 | Ladbrokes | $3.05-4.3% | $1.38-5.3% | 5.3% | — | 35.0 |
| 12 | Betfair Ex Uk | $3.15-1.2% | $1.34-8.0% | 6.4% | — | 25.6 |
| 13 | PointsBet | $3.00-5.9% | $1.36-6.7% | 6.9% | — | 23.8 |
| 14 | Casumo | $2.90-9.1% | $1.41-3.2% | 5.4% | — | 18.8 |
| 15 | Grosvenor | $2.90-9.1% | $1.41-3.2% | 5.4% | — | 5.0 |
| 16 | Paddypower | $2.88-9.7% | $1.40-3.9% | 6.2% | — | 2.5 |
| 17 | Draftkings | $3.05-4.3% | $1.35-7.3% | 6.9% | — | 1.9 |
Scores computed 29 Jun 10:20 pm · snapshot retained for audit · edge chips show each price against the fair market
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How this ranking works
Every price is measured against a fair market built by de-vigging all 17 books pricing this event (the exchange, with commission removed, is weighted double). The Recreational preset weights: price edge 30%, promo value 40%, market margin 10%, market depth 10%, bookmaker reliability 10%. Stale feeds are penalised up to 10 points. Full methodology →