Hawthorn Hawks v Melbourne Demons
afl · Saturday 4 July, 3:15 am
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Fair market
Melbourne Demons $3.21
Hawthorn Hawks $1.45
de-vigged consensus · exchange-weighted
| Bookie | Melbourne Demons | Hawthorn Hawks | Margin | Promo EV | Score · Balanced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neds | $3.05-4.8% | $1.38-5.1% | 5.3% | — | 69.6 |
| 2 | Ladbrokes | $3.05-4.8% | $1.38-5.1% | 5.3% | — | 63.5 |
| 3 | TAB | $3.15-1.7% | $1.35-7.1% | 5.8% | — | 56.9 |
| 4 | Casumo | $2.90-9.5% | $1.41-3.0% | 5.4% | — | 55.0 |
| 5 | Betfair Ex Uk | $3.15-1.7% | $1.34-7.8% | 6.4% | — | 53.5 |
| 6 | Betr | $3.50+9.2% | $1.30-10.6% | 5.5% | — | 51.5 |
| 7 | TABtouch | $2.90-9.5% | $1.41-3.0% | 5.4% | — | 45.0 |
| 8 | Sportsbet | $3.05-4.8% | $1.38-5.1% | 5.3% | — | 41.2 |
| 9 | Betfair exchange · prices shown pre-commission | $3.00-6.4% | $1.34-7.8% | 8.0% | — | 27.7 |
| 10 | Grosvenor | $2.90-9.5% | $1.41-3.0% | 5.4% | — | 26.5 |
| 11 | PlayUp | $3.10-3.3% | $1.35-7.1% | 6.3% | — | 23.1 |
| 12 | Paddypower | $2.88-10.1% | $1.40-3.7% | 6.2% | — | 21.5 |
| 13 | Unibet | $2.85-11.1% | $1.41-3.0% | 6.0% | — | 13.1 |
| 14 | Draftkings | $3.05-4.8% | $1.35-7.1% | 6.9% | — | 11.9 |
Scores computed 28 Jun 10:20 pm · snapshot retained for audit · edge chips show each price against the fair market
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How this ranking works
Every price is measured against a fair market built by de-vigging all 14 books pricing this event (the exchange, with commission removed, is weighted double). The Balanced preset weights: price edge 45%, promo value 20%, market margin 15%, market depth 10%, bookmaker reliability 10%. Stale feeds are penalised up to 10 points. Full methodology →