Brisbane Lions v Essendon Bombers
AFL · Sunday 12 July, 6:40 am
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Fair market
Essendon Bombers $16.05
Brisbane Lions $1.07
de-vigged consensus · exchange-weighted
| Bookie | Essendon Bombers | Brisbane Lions | Margin | Promo EV | Score · Recreational | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportsbet | $17.00+5.9% | $1.02-4.4% | 3.9% | +15.4% ⓘ | 77.1 |
| 2 | PointsBet | $21.00+30.9% | $1.01-5.3% | 3.8% | — | 58.6 |
| 3 | Betr | $15.00-6.5% | $1.01-5.3% | 5.7% | — | 45.7 |
| 4 | Betfair exchange · prices shown pre-commission | $13.50-15.9% | $1.03-3.4% | 4.5% | — | 42.9 |
| 5 | TAB | $15.00-6.5% | $1.01-5.3% | 5.7% | +10.5% ⓘ | 41.4 |
| 6 | Ladbrokes | $17.00+5.9% | $1.01-5.3% | 4.9% | — | 40.0 |
| 7 | Neds | $17.00+5.9% | $1.01-5.3% | 4.9% | — | 15.7 |
| 8 | PlayUp | $13.00-19.0% | $1.01-5.3% | 6.7% | — | 0.0 |
Scores computed 5 Jul 10:21 pm · snapshot retained for audit · edge chips show each price against the fair market
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How this ranking works
Every price is measured against a fair market built by de-vigging all 8 books pricing this event (the exchange, with commission removed, is weighted double). The Recreational preset weights: price edge 30%, promo value 40%, market margin 10%, market depth 10%, bookmaker reliability 10%. Stale feeds are penalised up to 10 points. Full methodology →