Newcastle United v Aston Villa
SOCCER_INTL · Saturday 17 October, 4:30 pm
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Fair market
Draw $3.84
Newcastle United $2.37
Aston Villa $3.15
de-vigged consensus · exchange-weighted
| Bookie | Draw | Newcastle United | Aston Villa | Margin | Promo EV | Score · Balanced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair exchange · prices shown pre-commission | $3.85+0.2% | $2.38+0.5% | $3.05-3.2% | 0.6% | — | 77.5 |
| 2 | Ladbrokes | $3.70-3.7% | $2.20-7.1% | $2.90-7.9% | 5.8% | — | 71.3 |
| 3 | Betr | $3.80-1.1% | $2.20-7.1% | $2.90-7.9% | 6.0% | — | 58.8 |
| 4 | PointsBet | $3.80-1.1% | $2.30-2.9% | $2.85-9.5% | 6.3% | — | 56.7 |
| 5 | Sportsbet | $3.60-6.3% | $2.25-5.0% | $2.95-6.3% | 5.6% | — | 45.8 |
| 6 | Neds | $3.70-3.7% | $2.20-7.1% | $2.90-7.9% | 5.8% | — | 44.6 |
| 7 | PlayUp | $3.60-6.3% | $2.25-5.0% | $2.90-7.9% | 6.6% | — | 43.3 |
| 8 | Bet Right | $3.80-1.1% | $2.20-7.1% | $2.90-7.9% | 6.0% | — | 39.6 |
| 9 | Picklebet Au | $3.60-6.3% | $2.25-5.0% | $2.90-7.9% | 7.5% | — | 31.7 |
| 10 | TAB | $3.60-6.3% | $2.25-5.0% | $2.90-7.9% | 7.4% | — | 29.2 |
| 11 | Dabble | $3.60-6.3% | $2.25-5.0% | $2.90-7.9% | 6.6% | — | 20.0 |
| 12 | TABtouch | $3.55-7.6% | $2.23-5.8% | $2.80-11.1% | 8.7% | — | 9.2 |
| 13 | Unibet | $3.55-7.6% | $2.23-5.8% | $2.80-11.1% | 8.7% | — | 0.0 |
Scores computed 17 Oct 10:20 am · snapshot retained for audit · edge chips show each price against the fair market
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How this ranking works
Every price is measured against a fair market built by de-vigging all 13 books pricing this event (the exchange, with commission removed, is weighted double). The Balanced preset weights: price edge 45%, promo value 20%, market margin 15%, market depth 10%, bookmaker reliability 10%. Stale feeds are penalised up to 10 points. Full methodology →