Newcastle United v Aston Villa
SOCCER_INTL · Saturday 17 October, 4:30 pm
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Fair market
Newcastle United $2.29
Aston Villa $3.26
Draw $3.88
de-vigged consensus · exchange-weighted
| Bookie | Newcastle United | Aston Villa | Draw | Margin | Promo EV | Score · Balanced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair exchange · prices shown pre-commission | $2.30+0.3% | $3.20-2.0% | $3.85-0.8% | 0.7% | — | 90.0 |
| 2 | Bet Right | $2.20-4.1% | $2.95-9.6% | $3.80-2.1% | 5.7% | — | 66.8 |
| 3 | PointsBet | $2.20-4.1% | $3.10-5.0% | $3.60-7.3% | 5.5% | — | 61.8 |
| 4 | Sportsbet | $2.20-4.1% | $3.00-8.1% | $3.70-4.7% | 5.8% | — | 53.6 |
| 5 | Betr | $2.20-4.1% | $2.95-9.6% | $3.80-2.1% | 5.7% | — | 49.5 |
| 6 | Neds | $2.10-8.4% | $3.20-2.0% | $3.60-7.3% | 6.6% | — | 36.4 |
| 7 | PlayUp | $2.15-6.2% | $3.00-8.1% | $3.60-7.3% | 7.6% | — | 33.6 |
| 8 | Unibet | $2.05-10.6% | $3.10-5.0% | $3.65-6.0% | 8.4% | — | 30.5 |
| 9 | Ladbrokes | $2.10-8.4% | $3.20-2.0% | $3.60-7.3% | 6.6% | — | 30.0 |
| 10 | TAB | $2.15-6.2% | $3.10-5.0% | $3.50-9.8% | 7.3% | — | 20.0 |
| 11 | Dabble | $2.15-6.2% | $3.00-8.1% | $3.50-9.8% | 8.4% | — | 10.9 |
| 12 | TABtouch | $2.04-11.0% | $3.10-5.0% | $3.65-6.0% | 8.7% | — | 0.0 |
Scores computed 13 Oct 10:20 am · snapshot retained for audit · edge chips show each price against the fair market
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How this ranking works
Every price is measured against a fair market built by de-vigging all 12 books pricing this event (the exchange, with commission removed, is weighted double). The Balanced preset weights: price edge 45%, promo value 20%, market margin 15%, market depth 10%, bookmaker reliability 10%. Stale feeds are penalised up to 10 points. Full methodology →